Threat assessment · Sites, people, events, organizations

Who would do it, and could they.

A threat assessment names the actors around your site, your people or your event, and answers two questions about each: do they intend to, and are they able to. GeoBit builds it from the record: what each actor has done, where, how they organize, what they have said, and what has changed. Sourced, confidence-tagged, delivered on a date.

Scoped in one working dayIntent and capability, statedWhat would change it, named
Threat pictureMAPPING ACTORS
Target site
ACTORS 0
HIGH INTENT + CAPABLE 0
CHANGED THIS MONTH 0
SOURCES 0
Identify › Intent › Capability › History › IndicatorsSimulated display
2 axesEvery actor placed by intent and capability, with the evidence for each
MonthsOf record behind every actor: what they did, where, and to whom
2 sourcesBefore a claim about an actor is asserted. Rumor is labelled rumor
NamedIndicators that would move an actor up or down, so you know what to watch
DaysTo a threat assessment for a site, a person, an event or an organization
What we assess

The actors, not the adjectives.

"Elevated threat environment" is not an assessment. A threat assessment names who, says what they want and what they can do, shows the evidence, and tells you what would change the picture.

Identify. The criminal groups, activist networks, insurgents, insiders, hostile competitors or individuals whose interests touch your site, your people or your event. From the record, not from a template.

Intent. What each actor has said and done about targets like yours. Statements, past actions, campaigns, the meetings and channels where action is planned.

Capability. What they have actually done and could do: reach, numbers, weapons, money, access, and the tactics they have used before.

History and trend. Incidents attributed to each actor, mapped and dated, and whether the tempo is rising or falling.

Indicators. The specific things that would move an actor's rating: a new statement, a change in tactics, a date on the calendar. So the assessment can be watched, not just filed.

The usual threat brief one target

Actors named"Various groups"
Intent stated with evidenceRarely
Capability stated with evidenceRarely
What would change the ratingNot stated
Usable for a decisionNO
GeoBit threat assessment: named actors, two axes, evidence, indicators, on a dateSCOPED TO YOU
How it runs

Five steps. Every actor placed, every placement sourced.

STEP 1

Scope

The target: a site, a person, an event, an organization. What you already know. One working day to a scope, a date and a quote.

one working day
STEP 2

Identify

Every actor in the record whose interests touch the target, in every language, from months of incidents, statements and channels.

the floor
STEP 3

Place

Each actor placed on intent and capability by a named analyst, with the evidence for each placement attached.

two axes
STEP 4

Test

A second analyst argues the other side. Two sources before a claim. Rumor stays rumor. Precision stated on every location.

red team
STEP 5

Deliver

The report, the actor map, the indicators, walked through with you. Optional: the indicators go onto the watch.

on the date
For a site

Who is around the facility

Crime groups, activists organizing against the plant, insurgents in the district, the insider risk the record shows. Pairs with a security assessment of the same site.

For a person

Who is around the principal

The actors with a reason to reach an executive or a delegation, where they have acted before, and the pattern of a trip against that picture. Feeds the journey plan.

For a specific threat

Is this credible

A message, a post, a tip. Who is behind it as far as the open record shows, whether they have acted before, and whether the tempo is escalating. Written so counsel and police can use it.

What is in the report

An actor map you can brief from, and watch afterwards.

Section 1One page

The picture in a page

Who matters most, why, and what has changed since the last look. Written for the person who has to decide.

WORDPDF
Section 2Two axes

Actor map

Every actor placed on intent and capability. The top-right corner is the list you act on.

BOARDPDF
Section 3Per actor

Actor profiles

Who they are, what they have done, where, how they organize and communicate, and the evidence for each placement.

WORD
Section 4Mapped

Incident history

Incidents attributed to each actor, mapped and dated, with the trend: rising, stable or falling tempo.

MAPPDF
Section 5Watchable

Indicators

The specific things that would move each actor's rating, so the assessment can go onto the watch instead of into a drawer.

WORDBOARD
Section 6Sourced

The record

Every source, statement and incident the assessment rests on, linked, dated and confidence-tagged.

PDF
Who orders one

Anyone who has to say "we assessed the threat" and mean it.

Sites

Corporate security

Before a plant opens, after a protest, when a group names you. Pairs with the security assessment.

People

Executive protection

The actors around a principal or a delegation, and the pattern of a trip against that picture.

Events

Venues and dates

Who would target the event, what they have done at similar events, and the indicators to watch in the weeks before.

Counsel

Legal and compliance

A specific threat assessed and written so it can be acted on, shared with police, or relied on later.

Capital

Insurers, lenders and funds

The threat picture around an asset, on one scale across a portfolio.

Field

Humanitarian operations

Who controls the ground, who has targeted aid workers, and what has changed since the last mission.

Not "elevated". Named, placed, sourced.

A threat assessment you cannot act on is a weather report. Ours names the actors, places each one by intent and capability with the evidence attached, and tells you what would change the picture. Then the indicators can go onto the watch.

How to start

Three steps. The first one is the form below.

Day 1

Tell us the target

A site, a person, an event or the organization. What prompted the question and what you already know.

Next business day

Scope, date, analyst

What the assessment will cover, when it lands, and the quote. Say yes and identification starts the same day.

On the date

The report, and a call

Walked through with you and whoever has to act on it. The indicators can go onto the watch the same week.

Side by side

A threat brief, or a threat assessment.

The jobThe usual briefGeoBit threat assessment
Actors"Various groups active in the area"Named, with what each has done and where
Intent and capabilityBlended into one adjectiveTwo axes, each with evidence
SourcesSummarizedLinked, dated, confidence-tagged; rumor labelled rumor
Specific threatsForwarded to policeCredibility and escalation assessed from the record, written for counsel
What would change itNot statedIndicators named per actor
AfterwardsFiledIndicators onto the watch, if you want them
Get in the door

Start with one product. Or one month. Or tell us what you need.

You do not have to hire a desk to start. Pick one fixed first thing, or describe something else entirely, tell us where and when, and a person comes back within one working day with a scope, the date it lands, and the quote. Say yes and the work starts the next business day.

Rather talk first? Book 30 minutes · or call +1 (202) 972-1938
More ways to hire us

The rest of the lineup.

Assess a threat.

Tell us the target and what prompted the question. We come back within one working day with a scope, a date and a quote.

— or —
Book a call directly
Or call us now: +1 (202) 972-1938