Sudan

Situation Summary

Sudan remains in active state collapse following the April 2023 outbreak of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). As of mid-August 2026, the conflict has entered a phase of sustained multi-front RSF offensives coupled with expanded drone warfare against army-controlled urban centers. Civilian displacement and infrastructure damage are accelerating, with the UN characterizing the security environment as "rapidly deteriorating" as of 16 August. Risk trajectory remains upward across all major population centers and transit corridors.

Key Developments

• Umm Arda, North Kordofan (14–15 Aug): RSF ground assault on Umm Arda locality, southwest of El Obeid, killed at least 14 civilians and wounded dozens; IOM reports 4,250 people displaced from Umm Arda, Tamid, and Al-Khor Al-Abyad toward Omdurman and other Shikan localities.

• El Obeid drone strikes (14–15 Aug): RSF conducted coordinated drone strikes on El Obeid city center, killing at least 2 civilians, wounding 6, and striking water supply infrastructure; part of multi-city campaign targeting army-held cities.

• Khartoum and Bahri district drone operations (15–16 Aug): RSF launched second consecutive day of drone strikes on Khartoum, Bahri, and Omdurman; Sudanese air defenses engaged and reportedly intercepted multiple drones on 15–16 August over the capital region.

• Blue Nile State escalation (13–14 Aug): Clashes in Geissan and Kurmuk areas near the Ethiopian border killed over 20 civilians; RSF and allied SPLM-N forces advanced into key border towns, displacing approximately 2,500 people from Geissan.

• Ground operations, Al-Ban Jadid and Jebel al-Hashaba (14 Aug): RSF coordinated assaults in areas south of El Obeid and on Jebel al-Hashaba; Sudanese army reported repelling attacks, though fighting remains active in North Kordofan.

• UN escalation warning (16 Aug): UN Secretary-General issued public warning that Sudan's crisis was "rapidly deteriorating" following RSF seizure of a key city, underscoring heightened unpredictability and civilian risk nationwide.

Highest-Risk Areas

North Kordofan and Blue Nile State are driving composite threat scores, driven by sustained RSF ground offensives, drone strikes on civilian infrastructure, and mass displacement. El Obeid remains a critical flashpoint, with repeated drone strikes and ongoing ground assaults in surrounding localities forcing thousands toward the city. Khartoum and its satellite cities (Omdurman, Bahri, Khartoum North) face persistent drone threats and front-line proximity, with SAF control contested and shifting. Border regions in Blue Nile, particularly around Geissan and Kurmuk, present compounded risk due to cross-border activity and limited humanitarian access.

How GeoBit Would Assist

Corporate security teams should employ AOI Monitoring & Early Warning on Khartoum, El Obeid, and Blue Nile corridors to detect drone launch patterns and displacement waves in real time. Conflict & Military battle-mapping and Network & Actor Analysis capabilities enable tracking of RSF and SAF force movements and operational tempo to anticipate secondary displacements. Routing & Network Analysis tools allow alternative journey planning around active conflict zones and drone-strike corridors, critical for duty-of-care evacuation and supply logistics.

7-Day Outlook

RSF drone operations are likely to persist or expand across Khartoum and secondary cities through late August, with Sudanese air defenses partially effective but not fully suppressing attacks. Ground offensives in North Kordofan are expected to continue, driving further displacement toward El Obeid and Omdurman; Blue Nile fighting may stabilize tactically but remains volatile. Humanitarian access deterioration and infrastructure damage will compound civilian risk, particularly in transport, water, and medical sectors.

Previous Daily Briefs

A new Sudan brief is written every day — each with its own risk map and downloadable CSV. Here's the last week; use the calendar to go further back.

• August 16, 2026⬇ CSV · $5
• August 15, 2026⬇ CSV · $5
• August 14, 2026⬇ CSV · $5
• August 13, 2026⬇ CSV · $5
• August 12, 2026⬇ CSV · $5
• August 11, 2026⬇ CSV · $5
• August 10, 2026⬇ CSV · $5